the data diary

The final pre-election forecast gives Kamala Harris a 93% chance of beating Donald Trump in Virginia.

Presidential probabilities

Each day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races. Each candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.

Forecasted election-day voteshare

The model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse. It then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.

pollster

date

population

mode

sample size

harris

trump

margin

AtlasIntel

4 November

Likely voters

Online Ad

2,141

52.8%

47.2%

D +5.6%

Research Co.

3 November

Likely voters

Online Panel

432

53.2%

46.8%

D +6.5%

Blueprint Polling

30 October

Likely voters

Live Phone/Text-to-Web

466

50.4%

49.6%

D +0.9%

Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research

29 October

Likely voters

Live Phone/Text-to-Web

783

55.4%

44.6%

D +10.9%

Cygnal

29 October

Likely voters

Live Phone/Text-to-Web

558

54.1%

45.9%

D +8.2%

YouGov

25 October

Likely voters

Online Panel

1,935

54.2%

45.8%

D +8.3%

Quantus Insights

24 October

Likely voters

Online Panel

702

50.6%

49.4%

D +1.1%

The Washington Post/George Mason University Schar School of Policy and Government

23 October

Likely voters

Live Phone/Text-to-Web

924

53.2%

46.8%

D +6.5%

Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership

4 October

Likely voters

Live Phone

744

55.9%

44.1%

D +11.8%

Virginia Commonwealth University L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs

25 September

Registered voters

Live Phone/Text-to-Web

640

56.4%

43.6%

D +12.8%

1–10 of 23 rows

State similarities

The model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another. Similar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.

Sources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com

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