the data diary

The final pre-election forecast gives Kamala Harris a 89% chance of beating Donald Trump in Minnesota.

Presidential probabilities

Each day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races. Each candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.

Forecasted election-day voteshare

The model first constructs a polling average, pooling data across similar states when polls are sparse. It then projects forward to election day, initially relying on non-polling indicators like economic growth and partisanship, but aligning more closely with the polling average as election day approaches.

pollster

date

population

mode

sample size

harris

trump

margin

AtlasIntel

4 November

Likely voters

Online Ad

1,991

51.0%

49.0%

D +2.1%

Research Co.

3 November

Likely voters

Online Panel

428

53.7%

46.3%

D +7.5%

Blueprint Polling

30 October

Likely voters

Live Phone/Text-to-Web

487

53.0%

47.0%

D +6.0%

SurveyUSA

28 October

Likely voters

Online Panel

684

54.2%

45.8%

D +8.5%

YouGov

25 October

Likely voters

Online Panel

1,224

55.2%

44.8%

D +10.5%

Change Research

22 October

Likely voters

Text-to-Web/Online Ad

1,609

51.4%

48.6%

D +2.8%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

14 October

Likely voters

Online Panel

511

54.2%

45.8%

D +8.4%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

2 October

Likely voters

Online Panel

518

54.2%

45.8%

D +8.5%

SurveyUSA

26 September

Likely voters

Online Panel

607

53.2%

46.8%

D +6.4%

Redfield & Wilton Strategies

19 September

Likely voters

Online Panel

661

53.3%

46.7%

D +6.5%

1–10 of 22 rows

State similarities

The model uses state characteristics, like demographic composition, population density, and education, to estimate how similar states are to one another. Similar states are more likely to share polling biases and see similar shifts in polling trendlines.

Sources: Ballotpedia; Cook Political Report; The Economist; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; FiveThirtyEight; Urban Stats; 270towin.com

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