the data diary
  • 2025 March Madness
    • Men’s Bracket
    • Women’s Bracket
  • About
  • Projects
  • Consulting

Men’s March Madness Predictions

Chances of each team advancing through the tournament, updated every game-day

How this works

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn Florida Florida AL State Creighton Michigan Mich State Florida Houston Creighton Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke Louisville TAMU Mich State Texas Tech Houston Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke UCSD Iowa State Maryland Alabama TAMU UNM Texas Tech Houston Yale Mich State Arkansas Tennessee Ole Miss Florida Duke UNC UConn Arizona Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland Alabama UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Kentucky Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford
Chances of each team advancing to the next round

Team has advanced to this round

Team was eliminated

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn Florida AL State Creighton Michigan Mich State Florida Houston Creighton Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke Louisville TAMU Mich State Texas Tech Houston Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke UCSD Iowa State Maryland Alabama TAMU UNM Texas Tech Houston Yale Mich State Arkansas Tennessee Ole Miss Florida Duke UNC UConn Arizona Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland Alabama UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Kentucky Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 61% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford
Chances of each team advancing to the next round

Team has advanced to this round

Team was eliminated

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn AL State Creighton Michigan Mich State Florida Creighton Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke Louisville TAMU Mich State Texas Tech Houston Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke UCSD Iowa State Maryland Alabama TAMU UNM Texas Tech Houston Yale Mich State Arkansas Tennessee Ole Miss Florida Duke UNC UConn Arizona Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland Alabama UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Kentucky Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 56% 25% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 44% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 51% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 49% 28% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford
Chances of each team advancing to the next round

Team has advanced to this round

Team was eliminated

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn AL State Creighton Michigan Mich State Florida Creighton Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke Louisville TAMU Mich State Texas Tech Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke UCSD Iowa State Maryland Alabama TAMU UNM Texas Tech Houston Yale Mich State Arkansas Tennessee Ole Miss Florida Duke UNC UConn Arizona Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland Alabama UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Kentucky Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 65% 36% 16% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 15% 5% 0% 0% 49% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 57% 35% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 62% 29% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 14% 7% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford
Chances of each team advancing to the next round

Team has advanced to this round

Team was eliminated

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn Auburn AL State Creighton Michigan Mich State Creighton Michigan Ole Miss Florida Louisville TAMU Mich State Texas Tech Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke UCSD Iowa State Maryland Alabama TAMU UNM Texas Tech Houston Yale Mich State Arkansas Tennessee Ole Miss Florida Duke UNC UConn Arizona Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland Alabama UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Kentucky Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 65% 39% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 35% 16% 5% 0% 0% 60% 29% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 16% 6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 64% 36% 22% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 15% 8% 61% 33% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39% 16% 8% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford
Chances of each team advancing to the next round

Team has advanced to this round

Team was eliminated

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn AL State Creighton Michigan Creighton Michigan Ole Miss Florida Louisville TAMU Mich State Texas Tech Michigan Ole Miss Florida Duke UCSD Iowa State Maryland Alabama TAMU UNM Texas Tech Yale Mich State Arkansas Ole Miss Florida Duke UNC UConn Arizona Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland Alabama UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Kentucky Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 77% 54% 32% 16% 0% 0% 0% 23% 10% 3% <1% 0% 0% 0% 36% 10% 3% <1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 64% 26% 11% 4% 0% 0% 58% 31% 13% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 42% 19% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 64% 38% 24% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36% 17% 9% 74% 49% 27% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 26% 11% 3% 1% 0% 0% 0% 32% 9% 2% <1% 0% 0% 68% 30% 13% 7% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford
Chances of each team advancing to the next round

Team has advanced to this round

Team was eliminated

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn AL State Creighton Michigan Creighton Michigan Ole Miss Louisville TAMU Mich State Michigan Ole Miss Florida UCSD Iowa State Maryland TAMU UNM Texas Tech Yale Mich State Arkansas Ole Miss Florida Duke UNC UConn Arizona Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland Alabama UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Kentucky Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 78% 54% 33% 16% 0% 0% 0% 22% 9% 3% <1% 0% 0% 0% 36% 11% 4% <1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 64% 27% 13% 5% 0% 0% 62% 39% 20% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38% 19% 8% 2% 0% 0% 0% 71% 34% 17% 7% 0% 0% 29% 8% 2% <1% 0% 0% 0% 71% 48% 28% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 29% 15% 6% 3% 0% 36% 11% 4% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 64% 27% 12% 6% 75% 51% 29% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 11% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 32% 8% 3% <1% 0% 0% 68% 30% 14% 7% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford
Chances of each team advancing to the next round

Team has advanced to this round

Team was eliminated

Round of 64 Round of 32 Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final 4 Championship Final 4 Elite 8 Sweet 16 Round of 32 Round of 64 SOUTH WEST EAST MIDWEST Hover over each team to see their chances of advancing. Auburn Auburn Auburn AL State Creighton Michigan Creighton Michigan Louisville TAMU Michigan Ole Miss UCSD Iowa State TAMU UNM Texas Tech Yale Mich State Arkansas Ole Miss Florida UNC UConn Lipscomb CSU BYU Iowa State Maryland UNM Drake Houston Marquette Texas Tech Purdue Mich State Arkansas Bryant St. John’s Tennessee Norfolk Duke Florida Baylor Oklahoma Oregon UConn Arizona Memphis BYU CSU Wisconsin Maryland SMC GCU Alabama Missouri Houston Drake Gonzaga Texas Tech McNeese Wilmington Purdue Kansas Illinois Arkansas Kentucky Omaha UCLA St. John’s Tennessee MSM Duke Baylor MS State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt SMC RMU Alabama Houston SIUE Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford 77% 50% 32% 17% 0% 0% 0% 23% 9% 3% <1% 0% 0% 0% 30% 12% 4% 1% <1% 0% 0% 70% 43% 20% 12% 5% 31% 11% 3% <1% <1% 0% 69% 35% 15% 8% 3% 0% 0% 61% 41% 26% 13% 6% 0% 39% 22% 11% 4% 2% 0% 29% 7% 2% <1% <1% 71% 30% 15% 6% 2% 0% 0% 0% 71% 37% 17% 7% 0% 0% 29% 9% 2% <1% 0% 0% 0% 76% 56% 40% 24% 15% 24% 11% 5% 2% <1% 0% 0% 35% 9% 4% 1% <1% 65% 24% 13% 6% 3% 0% 42% 14% 5% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 33% 15% 5% 2% <1% 0% 67% 43% 20% 9% 5% 75% 49% 30% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 11% 4% 2% 0% 61% 27% 10% 4% 2% 0% 39% 12% 3% <1% <1% 0% 0% 61% 27% 13% 7% 0% Auburn Alabama State Creighton Louisville Michigan UC San Diego Texas A&M Yale Ole Miss North Carolina Lipscomb Iowa State New Mexico Marquette Michigan State Bryant Norfolk State Florida Oklahoma UConn Memphis Colorado State Maryland Grand Canyon Missouri Drake Texas Tech UNC Wilmington Kansas Arkansas Omaha St. John’s Mount St. Mary’s Duke Baylor Mississippi State Liberty Oregon Arizona Akron BYU VCU Montana Wisconsin Vanderbilt Saint Mary’s Robert Morris Alabama Houston SIU Edwardsville Gonzaga Georgia Clemson McNeese High Point Purdue Xavier Illinois Troy Kentucky UCLA Utah State Tennessee Wofford