As of October 9th, the forecast gives Kamala Harris a 51% chance of beating Donald Trump in the electoral college.
Kamala Harris currently has a 51% chance of being elected America’s next president. She’s projected to win between 173 and 417 electoral college votes.
Donald Trump currently has a 49% chance of re-taking the white house. He’s projected to win between 121 and 365 electoral college votes.
Projected electoral college votes
The model is updated daily, blending state and national polls with non-polling predictors, like economic growth and presidential approval, to generate a range of potential outcomes in the electoral college. As we get closer to election day, the uncertainty around the estimate will decrease.
Presidential probabilities
Each day, the model simulates thousands of plausible election results, from landslide victories to tightly contested races. Each candidate’s probability of winning is the proportion of simulations that they’ve won.
There is a less than 1% chance of a tie in the electoral college.
Chance of winning each state
State-level results determine the makeup of the electoral college. Most states heavily favor a particular party, leaving a few competitive battlegrounds that will be decisive in determining the next president. Hover/click to see more information about a particular state.