For those who aren’t glued to electoral politics, Labor Day typically marks the beginning of election season. Primaries are settled, pollsters stop sampling all adults to prioritize likely voters, and campaigns kick into high-gear.
A few months ago, Harrison Lavelle wrote a piece for Split Ticket reviewing the electoral challenges faced by house republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump for his role in the assault on the capitol.
While the sitting president’s party tends to House lose seats in the midterm elections, the president’s approval rating can help inform us of the magnitude of that loss. In general, the more unpopular the president, the more seats his party tends to lose.
The 2022 midterms are still quite a ways away, however, in order to have a forecast ready in time, I need to start working on the model well in advance!
A few weeks ago I had written about the VA Governor’s race before going on vacation - in that time it seems as though Terry McAuliffe’s campaign had lost a lot of steam and Youngkin made up a lot of ground in the final weeks of the campaign.
Rolling poll averages can be misleading in the absence of errorbars or an expected distribution of outcomes. FiveThirtyEight is currently tracking polls of Virginia’s Governor race slated for early November, and has kindly made their polls available to the public.